According to @Excellion, as of August 14, 2025, 768,400 ETH are in Ethereum’s validator exit queue, roughly 3.5 billion dollars, signaling a notable unstaking pipeline, source: @Excellion on X Aug 15, 2025. According to @Excellion, this setup could pressure the ETHBTC pair, with a potential reversion to 0.03 or lower, which indicates relative downside risk for ETH versus BTC, source: @Excellion on X Aug 15, 2025. According to the source, the flippening will not occur, aligning the thesis toward BTC outperformance, source: @Excellion on X Aug 15, 2025. According to Ethereum’s staking withdrawal design, validators that enter the exit queue become eligible to withdraw after processing, which can increase circulating supply once released, source: Ethereum.org staking withdrawals documentation.

According to @Excellion, Ethereum validator exits can clear in a few hours to a day when the queue is light, but during high-demand waves they can extend to days or weeks with first-come processing, creating a big door in, small door out dynamic, source: @Excellion on X, Aug 14, 2025. Ethereum’s protocol applies an activation and exit churn limit that caps how many validators can leave per epoch, mechanically pacing withdrawals and lengthening wait times as exit requests rise, source: Ethereum.org Staking documentation. During prior market stress, liquid staking tokens such as stETH traded below par versus ETH when redemptions were constrained, highlighting liquidity and basis risk tied to exit bottlenecks, source: Kaiko Research June 2022. Historically, these constraints have paced ETH sell flow over multiple days and coincided with wider LST discounts and weaker futures basis, reflecting the throttle imposed by the exit queue, source: Ethereum.org Staking documentation and Kaiko Research.